Modern society is lost. It lives under the illusion of continuity, putting us in a position of grave vulnerability. The truth is that the entire history of life on earth has been about evolution and adaptability to change, often in the form of radical and traumatic change. And yet, human beings, with all their concept of superiority and selfish idea of dominating nature, live with their eyes dangerously closed.
Today, I want to talk about the inherent fragility due to this concept in people, businesses, and institutions, and why it's necessary to implement the principles of antifragility in all facets of life. Let's take, for example, stock market crashes, political regime changes, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and outbreaks of new viruses. In all cases, the illusion of permanence led us to disaster. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb says in his book «Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder,» it's the large, unforeseen events that move the world.
Recently, we can think about the 2008 stock market crash, the 2010 volcanic eruption in Iceland, the 2009 bird flu, and the 2019 coronavirus. And in Mexico, the 2017 earthquake and the change in political regime in 2018. All are disruptive, all are foreseeable, even if we didn't know the exact date they would occur, but all corresponded to the incessant effect of life's pendulum.
On a more personal level, this same principle of ignorance is behind the epidemic of unease among young people. I was one of the first to claim that it was unfair for our children to live worse lives than us. I was part of that illusory world that thought continuity was normal, moral, and inevitable. And thanks to me and other ignorant people, we fostered fragility in our children, making them feel that they were privileged and that, for some «magical» reason, life would provide them with the same opportunities we had, without having to earn them.
Today I am here to say that I was wrong. We must wish for the best, but we must also prepare for the unexpected, for the possible setbacks that Taleb calls «Black Swans.» So, as the saying goes, «the best time to have planted a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is today.» Or as my dear Rafael Piccolo, R.I.P., former director of H.P. Mexico, used to say, «there is no free lunch,» meaning that no one gives us anything for free; we have to earn it through hard work.
A good metaphor for visualizing what's required for an antifragile strategy is dumbbells. The weight is distributed equally on both sides. This means that today we must strive and work hard to make everything go well and for our desires to be fulfilled. But at the same time, we must be prepared to face a setback with fortitude, strength, and good sense.
The issue is that even if we do our best, success is unfortunately not guaranteed. But if we do nothing, failure is inevitable.
So, we must shield ourselves. First, in our health. Enjoy the well-being of the body and, at the same time, subject it to beneficial stress so that it withstands the onslaught of age, an accident, or illness. The same applies to companies and investments. Aggressively seek growth and abundance, while also preparing for an inevitable setback at some unforeseen time.
In summary, I conclude my reflection, and as always, I remind you that you are great and that life demands your greatness.